Is it too early to start thinking about the 2019 NCAA men's basketball tournament?

Yeah, probably.

But what would you do if you received this unique offer?

Pick 20 teams who you think will make the NCAA tournament in each of the next five seasons. For every team you pick correctly, you win $X; but for every incorrect pick, you owe $2X.

Easy money, right? It's the same darn teams in the tournament every year!

Well, actually, only 11 teams in the country have been to each of the past five NCAA tournaments. Had you made that bet five years ago, your best-case scenario is minus-$7X—and that's assuming you somehow had the foresight to know that Kansas State and San Diego State would sudden...

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