You're in Las Vegas and a man, properly credentialed, approaches you with a contest. Pick any eight quarterbacks in all of college football, and if the entire list passes for 3,000-plus yards, he'll pay you out a tidy cash prize.

A guy who throws for 4,000 yards does nothing for you over a guy with 3,001. All you need are the eight safest bets to cross that 3k threshold—everything else is moot.

How would you put together the list? 

It's a pretty complicated question. What do you do with Johnny Manziel? How confident can you be that he'll even play this season? Are you willing ...

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